Yasheng argumentative Chinese

 Yasheng: argumentative
Zhang Qi Li Xiang Chinese
Economic Observer Yasheng Huang
49-year-old has become the star of the field of economic research. He participated in the discussion of the Chinese economy in Latin America; on the dispute as real meaning; 2008 book, called . His grandfather yellow negative life is the first Chinese Communist Party is one of 50 members, Mao Zedong said: writer and playwright, his most famous work is the film but by means of business and capital, as well as external, independent voice from the bottom. His brother Jing HUANG teachers from English into as an investment banker, is currently Managing Director of Bain Capital China; Yasheng Harvard in 1981, after studying to become A business school professor, now teaching at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management.
Yasheng almost by books and articles written in English. His first book, a neutral name: ; Chinese enterprises are not competitive state of the overall, mainly by inefficient economic system and financial system and caused their practice and policies, rather than factors inherent in a developing country, the hh now assume that the operation of distribution system is as follows : it is systematically the most careful selection of ingredients to a bad cook, and the best chefs get is poor quality or no raw materials. In this system, consistent cooking quality difference will be inhibiting hh domestic entrepreneurs, resulting in the increase of FDI, resulting in political costs of this special, but this could have been avoided. The economy is a competitive standard; Yasheng argue that too much foreign direct investment, local private enterprises in China are caused by the squeeze effect.
Yasheng persistent in exploring what he sees as the real driving force of economic growth in China In 1987, Deng Xiaoping visited with the delegation from the Yugoslav government talk, given China's economic reform, the following evaluation: , and up pops hh this is not our central contribution. static control economic system there is great flexibility. This flexibility is the hard work of innovative entrepreneurs to start and provide opportunities for business expansion, so that you can gradually over time to remove invalid, useless the state sector. important aspect. long such a figure, the rise of a large number of grass-roots entrepreneurs; the 20th century, 90 years China's economic development is transferred to a large state-owned enterprises, and construction of public works projects through government investment to stimulate economic growth. Obviously, he thought the 20th century, 80 years China's economy more dynamic, it is a bottom-up economic change; and After their victory, the government began to more powerful hand.
At first glance, many of his views are sensational suspect. his two titles are very eye-catching, but in fact these two books are full of a large number of figures and charts that can be considered as serious to the boring academic books; He lifted the long dispute as discussed in the article published in With completion of the capital market in Hong Kong. In other words, this make China proud of the company, its success largely depends on the outside of the capital system in China.
with the claims to be view adopted by the Chinese government to expand domestic demand, economic incentives and methods.
course he is not just a talk by. He is hosting a simultaneous expansion in China and India, the project, the project is named as Room br> Who is a better understanding of China's Economic Observer
: the progress of your project How Chinese labs?
Yasheng: Until this year, China made a three laboratories, two Indian laboratories do, the effect good, very good reaction entrepreneurs, so we certainly have to do then.
us every year from the fall, the companies selected for participation from China, the students selected for participation in the United States. Our very special student status, such as I am with a few students, after graduation at McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group and Goldman Sachs. If they do these projects, the general charge of six hundred thousand dollars. was founded this project, my idea is I have two years The time is almost free to use these people. I would like to take this way, so that SMEs in China and India to have contact with the management of knowledge. This year we gave him some entrepreneurs do very satisfied with the report, to buy their own tickets to MIT , listening to students tell him.
Economic Observer: This project is a bit similar to the business school and consulting firm mixture?
Yasheng Huang: Yes, just from the project is concerned, it is a consulting project, the only difference is that we almost do not pay. Our main expense of the MIT alumni donations. They very much support the MIT activities in China.
many Chinese business schools are now compulsory in full compliance with the Massachusetts Institute of Curriculum Development. But three years ago, I had an idea, if you always go to business school to help train teachers in China, helping them to improve the teaching, of course, makes sense, but I want to change the mode to directly help the Chinese economy and Chinese society. that a more direct approach That is, to help Chinese enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises. I also like to take this project to promote more business education in China face the community, to contacts from the first day of business, not just discuss the case inside the classroom. < br> The Economic Observer: You wrote a lot of books on China, but I believe you have heard similar comments, saying that China is in fact written by Yasheng Huang wrote Westerners see China, is that right?
Yasheng : I'm more of English writing, this sense must be written for Westerners to see. of such comments can have two interpretations. positive words to say my English is good, that is negative, then do not understand China. I can accept this criticism, it does not matter. Ten years ago, I remember that at a meeting in mm actually write more foreign investment, of course, have a positive effect, but it has a very good side. I talked about negative factors at the meeting, a Chinese official asked me: Small yellow, you go to the United States many years he was in possession I called the Little mm yellow, then simply is the kind of condescending attitude, he said he used the language of my ideas are very clearly not. I said I was in America for many years. He says, you're obviously not very understanding of our situation in China.
I may be the situation in China is not very understanding, but the problem is, my view has later become a consensus, you say this is criticism or praise? I say since 1998 there is a negative factor in view of FDI , then this view is very low awareness in the country, yet by 2007, the Chinese government began to raise the issue himself, began to speak without a local innovation, lack of competitiveness of local enterprises, excessive concessions to foreign investors on local businesses constrain the development, this is my problem a decade ago to talk about.
may, for example, the fact itself is not talking, the fact itself is not a point of view, the fact that you have to match up, then you have to analyze in order to obtain a point of view, this idea is actually more important than the facts themselves. obviously in some very specific example, the I do not understand the situation in China. But there are things you have to know not to make the right judgments, and is not something to be aware to make the right judgments? This is the first point.
second, can not say bragging, in foreign scholarship, we do very carefully. In contrast, some scholars in China, they may be released very alarming theory, meeting once met a scholar, I said what are you doing? He said, I was re-Keynesian amendment. And our research are some very specific things, we should be more careful. like now I know two colleagues at MIT to do a research study of Chinese scientific and technological knowledge production, I spent a year, the overseas Chinese scientists published in scientific journals over eight hundred thousand copies of the articles collected, made a repository. China was doing this kind of thing up?
also some people say that I was preaching universal values, maintenance of the western system and values, not suited to China. I think it does not matter, we can come to discuss .1949 years ago, Chinese women with bound feet is characteristic of China, why the Chinese government that China will choose to abandon characteristics and the Chinese culture? China itself has these things, in my opinion does not constitute grounds for them should be maintained, they may be unreasonable. a lot of questions to analyze specific issues.
Overall, from the institutional I'm probably closer to Western values. but compared to some of the people to promote Western values, I am not pure ideology, I do from the data, but also China's own case to reasoning. such as the Wenzhou model in my opinion is a market economy, but also China, Wenzhou, it is not the West; I advocate a market economy, to promote I admit this, but if someone says I'm always starting from the ideology, I do not recognize, at least in my subjective and in fact as much as possible starting from the data.
Economic Observer: FDI from the early research done to Now, your methodology is what?
Yasheng: FDI Research in fact quite illustrative. First, it trained me a little relationship, when I see the macro data, when countries like China mm The situation is not so serious as now, the current account surplus, capital surplus is, this kind of situation a year or two years nothing particularly strange, but for ten years, this is the situation itself is very strange phenomenon. I The reason find it strange because I received education in this area. Since the interpretation of the data from the macro-barrier, then it There must be some of the factors behind the micro and micro factors in the end what you have to go.
Then, the study's subjects FDI has always been conducted from the perspective of multinational corporations. My research is completely off from the Chinese enterprises. I was how did this inspiration? is because I have to say than those in China officials contact with reality. I was in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu run a lot of business, the only other people did not think I think, is when people look for FDI in the study of foreign companies, and I think I should find a Chinese joint venture company, listen to their views. After both sides talked about, particularly interesting is that both sides described as the two countries, although they are in the same city to do the same project.
my method is, from the macro data analysis, and then to the micro level to find out. microstructure are field surveys. when I was at Harvard Business School, Harvard Business School case study out is very powerful.
conclusion of the study came out, also heard some views . One view is that FDI my place because China's own financial system problems, what good they think it strange, this is not particularly surprising conclusion. but no startling conclusions, why do not people say it so? Social science is not like natural science, natural science must be backed by experiment, social science does not require special and more data, it is what? is that a lot of people even very simple things do not see it, but look to be a social scientist out that the contribution of this man. In American social science are like this, say you will find here after the head is very interesting: Why is such a simple question so many years unable to speak.

Economic Observer: Now obviously, the question of how to look very different in China, a view that it is dangerous, is Model Student. clear that China can be said to have all aspects of economic take advantage of, whether it's education level, social or cultural mm fundamentals have been discussed later Confucian culture on economic development. I always tell people that World War II After the success achieved in the economy or national level over the western economies in East Asia: Korea, Japan, China Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore mm if from a cultural perspective, it can also be used as the East Asian countries, although it is geographically Southeast Asian countries. This simple observation is that a problem in these countries and regions in East Asia for whatever reason, all have a good basis for economic take-off you can say is that it mm location, it can be said culture or climate, and who know, maybe it is to eat rice.
also must have a corresponding self-evolution mechanism. not that need a complete system, a system does not need the first day of the perfect system is a seamless, as long as it can give yourself time to adjust and self-improvement can be. such as Korea's first military regime, but in its structure, there is no completely self-improvement to produce power destroyed. for the Chinese mainland, three decades of reform and opening up, it is also the evolution of the system.
back to the original topic, there are many factors of success in China. unsuccessful factors less than the success factors, but the unsuccessful is the key factor. such as South Korea and North Korea, the two countries are very similar in all aspects, even spicy food. and North and South Korea in the fifties, when the twentieth century, the Korean side is more affluent, it has minerals, industrial. North Korea is far higher degree of industrialization in South Korea. but compared to today's South and North Korea, the difference is very substantial. They only difference is that system. I can not think of any other difference. System mm mainly economic system, but also important political system of a mm economic take-off countries can not, play a crucial role. Even if you have a lot of good conditions for economic take-off, but without a system of self-improvement as a basis, it would not be able to economic take-off.
Then talk about why I'm pessimistic in China. China now encounter many problems and phenomena, not a Chinese characteristics, in fact, these more, but we mainly look at the income distribution. In my view, income distribution is a very important aspect, but Zhisuo Yi Latin American income distribution, because the Latin American economic model, not the social model of pull landscaping. from several specific ways, China's savings rate is high, but savings in China, the main corporate savings and government savings is the savings, once said Zhou Xiaochuan, China's largest savings bank is a resident savings, the second largest enterprise savings, government savings is relatively small, but very high growth rate of government savings, corporate savings rate is quite high, but rather little growth in household savings. This fully consistent with my research.
I said this, the government savings rate increases, the company increased savings rate, savings rate has not increased, we have seen in Brazil, Brazil last century, sixties and seventies just the same; foreign investment out of domestic capital, Brazil seventy Age is one such; enclosure movement, Brazil is the case, it's called human industrialization, that is, the farmers away, and then use government power to build cities, when there is little industrial development zone, or DC, these are the words later. From the sixties of last century began with two decades, rapid economic development in Brazil, if measured by GDP, then. But the next two decades of economic stagnation is the stage of development, risks abound. We now compare China and Brazil situation: income distribution, similar to the savings rate is similar, similar to the situation of urbanization, but also is a political party, China, which was the case with Brazil, there are striking similarities. certainly not the one to one similar to the such as globalization and the like, but some differences are not differences from country to country, but the difference between the times and the times.
from the economic system and economic policy, China seems to me that a lot of hidden problems not, as some put it, the Chinese people themselves to create a new model, is uniquely Chinese, but in other countries have, and are a failure. I can not imagine, like a cancer causing deaths, but to another person, let him thrive together. So, I still have a lot of concern in China.
my recent book, time is probably in November 2007, the last chapter I have already mentioned, when China's GDP is 11%, while GDP grew very fast, but it is very fragile because it is constrained by the degree of external demand is very serious. At that time, There is a point called the decoupling theory, I never believe decoupling. in GDP growth reached 11% of the time, I have concerns about the Chinese economy is. to August 2009, with six months experience in the financial crisis, is not I should be expressed optimism about the Chinese economy? obviously not. there is no financial crisis in the United States, China relies on exports for much of the time I expressed concern that the Chinese economy, and now, the U.S. household savings have been equivalent to GDP from 2005 5% of the negative into a positive 7%, the U.S. economy such a large plate, a 12% change, mean that China can not go expect a lot of American consumer products.
a lot of people that you talk so much the question, why the Chinese economy is still good? China's economic development over the past 10 years, dependent on external demand, and this in a sense at the expense of economic development in domestic demand, mainly consumption demand, that is, the consumer. It Why can develop? It depends on the Americans lost all reason, depends on the U.S. a very big change. This means that if it looks like China is still as in the past, only to increase supply, rather than to implement institutional and policy adjustments to promote consumption of domestic demand, consumption-based economy into the future will inevitably produce overproduction, the bubble burst. No government can not force people spending. So I after a year in China, two years of economic trends are very worrying. a year or two, even if the U.S. GDP growth resumed, and consumption will not recover.
Economic Observer: the fear of inflation expectations formation will stimulate consumption results?
Yasheng: This question is very important. This head has an implicit view that the Chinese people voluntarily choose not to consumption, in fact, his pocket more money in incredible, there is more money in the bank's incredible. so I can use the fear of inflation, inflation in terms of mm from the fear of negative, positive speaking is to carry out social security, to reduce the enthusiasm of the people of voluntary savings . In my view this assumption itself is wrong. I need to see the data, my data source is the government to do their own income and expenditure survey of Chinese urban and rural residents. I built a large database, has been analyzing this data, I wrote When the last book read since the 1980s, has recently been seen in 2008 and 2009 data from the second quarter. I very carefully to see, wanted to answer a very simple question: a typical of the people, his hand where in the end how much money?
if the savings from the relevant departments of the residents of public view, that is more incredible, and the annual increase is very fast. But in the Income and Expenditure Survey done when the urban and rural residents, of which there is a problem, not ask you how much money, but asked how much of your income. so you can calculate the savings to interest rates. I now work out the data indicate that if the authorities announced the typical household savings is 100, I use the income and expenditure survey residents Data calculated from the 40.
that typical people, his savings far more than we thought so. are two possibilities: One possibility is that the numbers themselves true; but if this hundred dollars that is true, we face a Brazilian topic, it is income inequality. because the income and expenditure survey in urban and rural residents are typical of the family, high-income people are often left out. maybe 10% to 15% of Chinese households control of China 50% to 60% of the deposits. back we speak of promoting consumption. in any country of this, China certainly is the case, always save the rich, the poor consumer. If the typical Chinese hands and not so much money, go make him fear, go out social security, his role is not that great; on the rich, this is a dangerous strategy, once the rich man that his money be devalued, he would to transfer the money to go abroad, resulting in capital flight.
If the general people to grasp the hands of a lot of money, then this strategy can be successful; if most of the rich master the money, this strategy is very dangerous. China's vulnerability in this place. In the past we spreading the wealth around, it does not matter, when you buy in 1988, we feel that there is inflation to buy salt, buy rice; now that inflation for the rich will not place to buy TV at home, he may have to buy a house in New York. If this time 60% of household savings in China are 50% mm equivalent to the total savings of Chinese residents to flee abroad to 30%, which is how the Chinese economy is like of?
now, the consumer index has not risen, that the consumer did not go up, but consumption of assets went up from the stock market and real estate bubble can be seen. Generally speaking, the more money people do asset consumption, poorer people do product consumption. If there is such a expected, there will be asset inflation, there would we say that capital flight; To resolve this problem, we should pierce the bubble, Alternatively, the bubbles collapse of a series of consequences we all know. implementation of policies of any country, the first to prevent the formation of bubbles, the formation of the second when the bubble has just pierce it, I did not see a government is to deliberately foam blowing up. This is what I can not imagine.
Economic Observer: GDP growth is not important, but you?
Yasheng: This is particularly interesting. now the Obama speech, never mentioned GDP, he mentioned employment. Western system has a very key point is to let the central bank to remain independent, do not let it go out from the employment system; and all other departments of the government in the pursuit of employment. objectively speaking, in order to improve a society stability and political stability, it should be the pursuit of employment, rather than the pursuit of GDP growth. GDP growth and employment are not necessarily contradictory relationship between, but you can choose to create employment opportunities for the pursuit of GDP growth, employment can be pursued without GDP growth. China is no more growth in the GDP growth in employment. I also careful to read the data, the official estimates of the employment rate is high, but the Chinese from the late nineties of last century to 2005, the average retirement age reduced by one mm retirement age to not more than a job. China's retirement age is low, a decade earlier than other countries, estimates the natural rate of unemployment decreased by.

on the conditions of the Economic Observer: I do not know how to understand the state-owned enterprises over the past decade to achieve success?
Yasheng: If you look at profitability, measured in foreign countries was carried out, its return on capital from other standards, it is not as good as private enterprises. Then we explain why the profit of state-owned enterprises give priority to projects mm it has the right to give it a good thing, first it listed, if shortage of funds, first to ensure its supply. the policy conditions to give a very rich state-owned enterprises, which kinds of cases, who can compete with them? I do not think any real state-owned enterprises to improve. state system the most successful countries are Singapore, even in Singapore, it was also done calculations, Singapore's state-owned enterprises is not as private enterprises. < br> nineties of the last century, the state-owned enterprise restructuring I have opinions. I think that when the Government should be the privatization of profitable state-owned enterprises, non-profit state-owned enterprises as government commitments and obligations to society bear down, do not let it more unemployment. If we count this account, I think China's high savings rate and the Chinese people do not consume, it is likely to keep up with state-owned large-scale reorganization of the nineties century, a relationship. Chinese residents received after this trauma to become very carefully.
In addition, if not, may reduce the number of social unrest, less income inequality, because you protect the most vulnerable, with no ability to defend ourselves, almost to retirement age workers.
then state-owned enterprise restructuring to create a powerful interest groups. the last century, the late eighties and early nineties, when large state-owned enterprises have a whole plate, but they are still scattered. This resulted in a private enterprise policy space. But when in front of you is a very powerful, very Baotuan, and speak a very tough group, that is another matter. I think that if China's future economy is in trouble one day, historians re- to study this history, it may be pointed out that this is a very important reason. long story short, on the profitability of state-owned monopoly enterprises to create, I have no confidence that the.
Economic Observer: no matter how much they spent great efforts to bring itself into a modern corporate mm such as overseas market, such as an internal transformation, managers have to read the business school?
Yasheng: That would be some marginal effect on the role of state enterprises is to make them suit dress better.
However, any one who studies the economy, or do not need to study, any person with common sense should know that an enterprise has no competitive edge in the competitive environment in order to make this determination. a Players must match before we know he is the first or second. There are no games. state-owned enterprises and the competition between state-owned enterprises is not much sense in my opinion, because the shareholders of state-owned enterprises and competition between state-owned enterprises in my It seems there is not much significance, as the shareholders are the same one.
Economic Observer: you do not agree, walked the streets other than can not or should not go? Harvard University has a seventies of last century Nobel Prize economist, he proposed a theory called the latecomer's advantage. Why mover advantage after ? because it can be less costly mistakes. class has a student learning approach has proved very effective, you must not do that why should?
also stated that the Western market economy left the road four years, we at least have to take four years. I do not know why say so. human to get the first computer with a two hundred million years, the second computer-based learning to take two months to understand. Why must we wait for more than two years, Zaiqu Na a second computer?
I'm not saying the market system can form overnight, but also requires a process. But this process is a natural process. if I learn how to swim, not to say that one can learn to learn, but at least should be allowed to I went to school. if the school does not allow you to learn, of course, is even more of a long process.
there is a point of view is very strange: China should not be more democratic, because the quality is not high. This conclusion itself I think there is no data to support. and I will not speak this point, if you think it is because the level of education is not high, you should invest in education, should solve this problem, give him a free education to university so he should not be closed more fees. You can take many other measures, if you think democracy should be the goal of the words. If you think the quality of our Chinese people can not, then you should improve the quality of, and should not say should not be more democratic.
Amartya. Sen has a book The reason is because the system, so a lot of things no one to question, so so many misconceptions, many years we have accepted.
over here from the 1980s
Economic Observer: From a purely economic point of comparison, What's more open to what you think?
Yasheng: the eighties of last century. At that time I remember a song that may soon become self-employed Tiananmen place stall, that is derogatory perspective of the matter. But from another angle, indicating that small business development, entrepreneurial atmosphere was good. is not to say how the policy was free, how free the law, but open government, there is no strong executive .1980 years, the Chinese economic growth is to rely on bottom-up driven.
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